THE SPORTS ADVISORS
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 30
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
HUMANITARIAN BOWL
(at Boise, Idaho)
Bowling Green (7-5 SU and ATS) vs. Idaho (7-5 SU and ATS)
Two teams headed in opposite directions square off at Bronco Stadium when Bowling Green takes on an Idaho squad making only its second-ever postseason appearance.
The Falcons rattled off four consecutive wins (SU and ATS) to close the season in third place in the Mid-American Conference’s East Division, with the offense leading the way by scoring 30 points or more in each of the final four contests. In its finale, Bowling Green topped Toledo 38-24 as a 7½-point underdog, with RB Willie Geter leading the charge with 114 yards rushing and three TDs.
The Vandals ended the regular season by losing three straight (SU and ATS) and four of their last five (0-5 ATS), getting edged in a shootout by Utah State in the finale 52-49, failing as a three-point home favorite. Idaho placed fourth in the Western Athletic Conference after starting the season 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS.
Bowling Green, which missed the postseason last year, is playing in its fourth bowl game in the last seven years. The Falcons’ last bowl appearance was a disaster, as they got destroyed by Tulsa 63-7 in the 2008 GMAC Bowl, never threatening to cover as a 5½-point underdog in what was the biggest blowout in bowl history. That loss snapped Bowling Green’s four-game postseason winning streak. Idaho’s only bowl appearance came in 1998 when the Vandals edged Southern Mississippi 42-35, winning outright as 17½-point underdogs.
This is the first-ever meeting between these schools.
Falcons QB Tyler Sheehan, who threw a pair of TD passes in the regular-season finale against Toledo, finished the regular season completing 64.4 percent of his passes for 3,664 yards with 23 TDs and just six INTs. His top target is electrifying WR Freddie Barnes, who led the nation with 138 catches for 1,548 yards, and with five receptions today he’ll set the NCAA record for catches in a season. Bowling Green averages 27.3 points and 393.8 total yards per game, but only 83.6 rushing ypg. Defensively, the Falcons give up 26.2 points and 396 yards per outing, including a whopping 155.8 rushing ypg.
Idaho’s offense is averaging 31.8 points per contest (25th in the nation) and 450.9 total yards per game (10th) with a balanced offense that nets more than 290 ypg through the air and more than 160 ypg on the ground. QB Nathan Enderle is ranked seventh in the nation with a 122.75 QB rating and he passed for 2,666 yards with 18 touchdown throws against nine INTs. Like the Falcons, though, the Vandals struggle defensively, yielding 35.5 points and 424.8 total yards per game (268.9 passing; 155.8 rushing).
The Falcons soar into this one on ATS runs of 4-0 overall, 4-0 as a favorite, 5-1 after a straight-up win and 6-2 when playing on turf. Idaho is on ATS slides of 0-5 overall, 6-21 after a straight-up loss and 7-19 after a non-cover, but the Vandals have covered in four straight non-conference games and five of seven against winning teams.
Bowling Green has stayed under the posted total in four of six overall and five of its last six after a straight-up win, while Idaho is on “over” streaks of 8-4 on the season (7-2 last nine)l, 7-2 against winning teams, 5-1 as an underdog and 8-1 in non-conference action.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOWLING GREEN
HOLIDAY BOWL
(at San Diego)
(20) Nebraska (9-4, 8-5 ATS) vs. (22) Arizona (8-4, 6-5 ATS)
The Cornhuskers, who just missed winning the Big 12 title and when Texas scored a last-second field goal, will try to make it six of seven wins to close the season when they battle Arizona at Qualcomm Stadium.
Nebraska, champs of the Big 12 North Division, was on the verge of earning itself a BCS bowl invitation and ending the Longhorns’ national title hopes until Texas kicked a 46-yard field goal as time expired to win the Big 12 championship game 13-12 on Dec. 5. The Huskers easily cashed as 14-point underdogs, snapping a 2-5 ATS slide. However, the SU defeat ended a five-game winning streak.
Arizona closed the season with consecutive road wins (1-1 ATS), beating rival Arizona State 20-17 on Nov. 28 (also on a last-second field goal), and then going to the Coliseum in Los Angeles and upsetting USC 21-17 as a seven-point underdog on Dec. 5. The Wildcats finished the regular season tied for second place is the Pac-10, even with Stanford and Oregon State.
The Huskers, winners of three of their last four postseason appearances, beat Clemson 26-21 in the Gator Bowl last Jan. 1, pulling off the upset as 2½-point underdogs. Arizona returned to the bowl season last year after a 10-year hiatus and beat BYU 31-21 as a three-point favorite, improving to 3-0 SU in its last three bowl outings.
Prior to last year’s Las Vegas Bowl, the Wildcats’ previous bowl appearance came in the 1998 Holiday Bowl against Nebraska, and Arizona scored a 23-20 upset win, cashing as three-point underdogs.
Everything Nebraska does revolves around a defense that is second in the nation in points allowed (just 11.2 per game) and ninth in total yards allowed (284.2 per game). The Huskers, who held nine opponents to 13 points or less and gave up more than 20 points just once, also finished second in the country with 42 quarterback sacks. Heisman Trophy finalist Ndamukong Suh led the charge with 12 sacks, including dropping Texas QB and fellow Heisman finalist Colt McCoy 4½ times in the Big 12 title game, while also adding 12 tackles in that contest, nine of which led to zero or negative yards.
While Nebraska’s defense was rock solid all year, the same can’t be said for an offense that netted just 317.2 total yards per game, including 176 passing ypg. Take away three blowout wins over Sun Belt Conference teams in which they scored 49, 38 and 55 points, the Huskers averaged just 17.7 ppg.
Arizona also gets strong play from its defense, ranking 21st in the Football Bowl Subdivision at 315.8 total ypg, and the unit allowed 17 points or less and two touchdowns or fewer in four of its last six games. Offensively, QB Nick Foles (66.1 percent, 2,453 yards, 19 TDs, 8 INTs) was the fourth-rated passer in the Pac-10, and the Wildcats got a combined 1,100 yards and nine TDs from RBs Nic Grigsby and Keola Antolin.
The Cornhuskers are on positive ATS runs of 5-0 in non-conference action, 5-2 in December, 5-2 after a spread-cover and 8-3 against teams with winning records. Arizona is just 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine non-conference contests and 16-33 ATS in its last 49 games after a spread-cover, but the Wildcats cashed in six of their last nine overall and are on additional ATS surges of 4-1 against winning teams and 4-0 in December.
Led by its stout defense and inconsistent offense, Nebraska is on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 11-3 overall, 4-1 in non-conference action, 5-1 in bowl action, 4-0 in neutral site games and 4-1 in December. Arizona has stayed below the posted total in five of six overall, five straight in December and four straight after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
UConn (9-2, 2-7 ATS) at Cincinnati (8-3, 3-4 ATS)
UConn and Cincinnati open the Big East campaign at the Fifth Third Arena, where the Huskies will try to extend a three-game winning streak in their first true road game of the season.
UConn blasted Iona 93-74 on Sunday, cashing as a 14½-point favorite as they topped their previous high point total of 92. The Huskies have scored more than 70 points in eight of 11 games, but they’ve played just three teams from power conferences. In those three contests – all played at Madison Square Garden – they lost to Duke (68-59 as a 3½-point ‘dog) and Kentucky (64-61 as a one-point favorite), while crushing LSU (81-55 as a six-point chalk).
The Bearcats have followed consecutive road losses at Xavier (83-79 in overtime as a 3½-point underdog) and UAB (64-47 as a two-point chalk) with two blowout home wins over non-lined foes Lipscomb (80-52) and Winthrop (74-57 in their most recent contest on Dec. 22). Cincinnati is unbeaten through six home games – averaging 78.7 points per game and allowing 59.2 ppg – but only two came against lined competition (1-1 ATS). The ‘Cats’ only game against a ranked team came on Nov. 24 in the Maui Invitational, and they drubbed then-No. 21 (and now unranked) Maryland 67-58 as a 3½-point underdog.
UConn has won all four meetings in this rivalry since Cincinnati joined the Big East in 2006, going 3-1 ATS. Last year, the Huskies went to Fifth Third Arena and prevailed 81-72, barely cashing as an 8½-point road chalk. They also won 84-83 at Cincinnati in 2008, but the Bearcats covered as a 4½-point home ‘dog.
The Huskies have cashed in four of their last five Wednesday contests, but they’re otherwise in pointspread ruts of 2-8 overall, 1-6 in the Big East, 1-4 against winning teams and 2-6 after a SU victory. The Bearcats are also looking to shake several pointspread slumps, including 0-4 overall in lined action, 0-4 in conference play and 2-5 against winning teams, but like UConn, Cincinnati has excelled on Wednesday (19-7-2 ATS last 28).
The under is on runs of 7-1 for UConn on the road, 4-1 for UConn on Wednesday, 7-1 for Cincinnati overall, 5-0 for Cincinnati at home and 3-1-1 for Cincinnati on Wednesday. Conversely, the last three head-to-head meetings between these schools have easily hurdled the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(25) Northwestern (10-1, 6-2 ATS) at Illinois (8-4, 4-7 ATS)
Back in the Top 25 for the first time since 1969, Northwestern is set to open Big Ten play with just its second true road contest of the season as it visits Assembly Hall looking to end a 10-game losing skid to the Illini.
The Wildcats have earned some rare national attention by ripping off nine consecutive victories and five straight spread-covers in lined games. Most recently, Northwestern followed up a 70-62 home win over Stanford (covering as a six-point home favorite) with a 74-54 non-lined home win over Central Connecticut State on Dec. 22. The Wildcats’ only setback was a 67-54 home loss to then-No. 11 Butler as a 4½-point home ‘dog on Nov. 18, and their only road outing came on Dec. 1, when they pounded North Carolina State 65-53 as a six-point underdog in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge.
Northwestern hasn’t started 11-1 since 1982-83, and hasn’t had a double-digit winning streak since the 1930-31 squad started out 12-0 en route to the Big Ten championship.
Illinois has followed up a four-game winning streak (3-1 ATS) with consecutive losses at Georgia (70-67 as an 8½-point favorite) and to Missouri (81-68 in St. Louis as a two-point underdog). The Illini – who started the season in the Top 25 – have faced just one ranked foe, and that was at No. 18 Clemson in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge on Dec. 2. In that game, Illinois staged a huge second-half rally to win 76-74 as a six-point underdog. Bruce Weber’s squad is 7-0 at Assembly Hall (3-3 ATS), winning by an average of 22.7 ppg (85.6-62.9).
The Wildcats haven’t defeated Illinois since Jan. 14, 2004, losing the last 10 meetings in a row (5-5 ATS) and 25 of the last 27 clashes dating to 1995. In last year’s lone meeting, Northwestern hosted Illinois and had a 14-point lead with less than 5½ minutes to play, but crumbled from there and fell 60-59, though they did cash as a two-point home ‘dog.
Northwestern has played outstanding defense all year, holding all 11 opponents to 67 points or fewer, with eight teams scoring 62 or less and five failing to top 55 points. Conversely, the Illini have surrendered 70 points or more in five of their last seven games, yielding an average of 70.7 ppg during this stretch.
In addition to its current 5-0 ATS run, Northwestern is on pointspread surges of 6-2 on the road, 5-0 against winning teams and 4-0 versus winning teams. The Illini are 29-14-2 ATS in their last 45 Wednesday outings, but they’re in ATS slumps of 4-9 overall and 2-5 against teams with a winning record.
Northwestern is on “over” surges of 12-5 in Big Ten play and 8-1 on Wednesday, while Illinois carries “over” trends of 13-3 overall, 6-0 at home, 4-0 after a SU loss and 5-0 after an ATS setback. However, Illinois has stayed low in 12 of its last 17 conference games, the Wildcats have stayed low in six straight against winning teams, and the under has hit in seven straight meetings overall in this rivalry and four straight at Assembly Hall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTHWESTERN
NBA
Atlanta (21-9 SU and ATS) at Cleveland (25-8, 18-15 ATS)
Two of the top teams in the Eastern Conference square off for the second straight night, with the scene shifting from Philips Arena in Atlanta to Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland.
The Hawks’ explosive offense – which had produced 110 points or more in six of the previous nine games – was quieted big-time last night, as they fell 95-84 as a 2½-point home favorite, just their third home loss of the season. Tonight, Atlanta is playing its fifth road game in its last six contests, and it split the last four SU and ATS. For the season, the Hawks are 9-6 SU and 10-5 ATS on the highway.
Cleveland is now riding a five-game SU and ATS winning streak, with those victories coming by margins of 18, 13, 15, 25 and 9 points. The Cavaliers have also won 10 of their last 11 and 14 of their last 17, and they’ve matched their season high with five straight spread-covers (which comes on the heels of a 2-6 ATS slump). Also, Cleveland has won 10 straight home games and is 12-2 SU at Quicken Loans Arena, but just 5-9 ATS. One of those spread-covers came in Sunday’s 108-83 rout of Houston as an 8½-point home chalk.
Cleveland swept the Hawks out of last year’s Eastern Conference playoffs, going 3-0-1 ATS, and the Cavs have now won seven in a row and nine of the last 10 in this rivalry, going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at home. The host is 5-3-1 ATS in the last nine head-to-head matchups, and the favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five.
Atlanta’s 21-9 ATS mark on the season is buoyed by additional pointspread runs of 4-2 against the Eastern Conference, 15-8-1 against the Central Division, 8-1 on Wednesday, 7-4-1 against opponents with a winning record, 4-1-1 as an underdog and 19-7-1 as a pup of five to 10½ points. Cleveland is on ATS tears of 5-0 overall, 4-1 on Wednesday and 5-1 against winning teams.
Atlanta carries “over” trends of 18-12 this season, 6-2 versus the Eastern Conference, 4-2 against the Central Division and 19-7 on Wednesday, but the under is 7-3 in its last 10 roadies and 11-3 in its last 14 as an underdog. For Cleveland, the under is on runs of 5-1 at home, 6-1 in Eastern Conference games and 40-16 after an ATS triumph, but the over is 5-2 in the Cavs’ last seven on Wednesday. Finally, though last night’s game stayed way under the total, the over is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams in Cleveland.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Boston (23-7, 13-17 ATS) at Phoenix (20-12, 18-14 ATS)
The Celtics, who wrap up a four-game road trip tonight, look to avoid their first three-game losing skid when their make their only visit of the season to US Airways Center for a battle with the Suns.
Boston upset Orlando 86-77 on Christmas Day, cashing as a 5½-point underdog as it won for the 14th time in its previous 15 games. However, the Celtics then traveled west and got dumped by the Clippers on Sunday (92-90 as an 8½-point road chalk) and Golden State on Monday (103-99 as a 5½-point favorite). Since All-Star Paul Pierce went down with an injury, Boston has averaged just 91.7 ppg after topping the century mark 10 times in its previous 14 games. Pierce will be sidelined for at least two weeks.
Phoenix throttled the defending-champion Lakers 118-103 as a one-point home underdog on Monday, but it is still only 6-9 SU in its last 15 games (7-8 ATS). The Suns’ offense is humming again, putting up 113, 124, 127 and 118 points in its last four games. Phoenix is 12-2 SU and 9-5 ATS at home this year, averaging a whopping 115.4 ppg while shooting a blistering 51.2 percent from the field. However, it is facing a Boston team that gives up just 90.7 ppg (43.7 percent) on the road.
These teams split their season series last year, with the visitor pulling off the outright upset both times, including Boston’s 128-108 rout as a two-point underdog. Prior to last season, the host had won four in a row (3-1 ATS) in this rivalry, yet the visitor is still 10-3 ATS in the last 13 clashes, with the Celtics cashing in five of their last six trips to the desert. Also, the SU winner has cashed in 13 of the last 15 meetings, including the past five in a row.
The underdog has cashed in each of Boston’s last four games and eight of the last 10, with the Celtics going 3-7 ATS during this span. In fact, since starting out 4-1 ATS, Doc Rivers’ squad has failed to cash in 16 of its last 25 games (6-8 ATS on the road). Additionally, Boston is in pointspread slumps of 0-6 against the Pacific Division and 1-6 after a SU loss, but it has covered in four straight against winning teams and is 38-15-1 ATS in its last 54 as an underdog, 48-19-1 ATS in its last 68 as a road pup and 5-0-1 ATS in its last six as a ‘dog of less than five points (all on the road).
The Suns are on ATS runs of 5-2 at home, 20-9-1 a homefavorite, 4-1 when laying less than five points at home, 5-2 against the Atlantic Division, 5-2 versus winning teams and 11-5 when playing one day of rest. However, they’re just 1-5 ATS in their last six after a SU victory and 0-4 ATS in their last four following a double-digit win.
Boston is on “under” surges of 4-0 overall, 4-1 on the highway, 4-1 as an underdog and 5-1 against the Pacific Division, but the over is 14-5 in its last 19 after a SU defeat and 9-4 in its last 13 on Wednesday. Phoenix has followed a 13-3-2 “under” run by topping the total in four straight overall, and the over is 25-9 in its last 34 on Wednesday, but the under is 7-0-1 in its last eight against Eastern Conference opponents.
Finally, the over is on a 10-4-1 surge in this rivalry, but the total has alternated in the last five meetings in Phoenix, with last year’s clash in the desert clearing the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
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